AEO2026 reframes its “Reference Case” as a control, not a forecast, and reveals a structural shift: electricity demand—driven by data centers and AI—is now the primary system variable, with load shape (continuous vs peak) redefining grid costs and planning
Brandon Owens
States are competing to shape AI as physical infrastructure. Diverging archetypes—from hyperscale clusters to energy-led expansion—are creating a new hierarchy. Regions that align compute, energy, and institutions will lead; others will operate within systems designed elsewhere.
Brandon Owens
Data center developers are building a parallel “shadow grid” to bypass delays and costs. With 47 GW emerging—rivaling grid builds—this system is largely invisible to planners. FERC’s response may unintentionally push more operators fully off-grid, deepening coordination and reliability risks.
Michael Leifman